Just in the past month, I will summarize the strategy of "going long ETH and shorting a package of altcotts". Overall, this idea is very successful, ETH continues its strong performance, and for most of the month, other altcoins cannot rise ETH during the rise period, and the decline will exceed ETH during the decline. It can also be seen intuitively from the data that ETH. D has increased from 12% to 14.4%, and only 18 of the top 200 tokens on CMC by market capitalization have surpassed ETH in the past 30 days. The biggest advantage of this strategy lies in its robustness in the face of market fluctuations, even if ETH has experienced three pullbacks of more than 10% during the period, the return curve in Figure 2 still maintains an overall upward trend, which also makes the psychological pressure of hedging much less than unilateral long under the same position size. The key to the hedging strategy is to choose weak altcoins, according to the beginning of August, ETH from 3700 to...




目前多空分歧严重,我开了一笔对冲交易,做多ETH,做空一揽子山寨,仓位大概是1:1,和大家交流讨论下思路。
我的逻辑是,ETH是六月末开始的本轮上涨的发动机,主要推动力,一是机构效仿微策略,通过币股融资购买ETH,二是稳定币叙事,ETH是相关的核心基建与结算层。
参考此前微策略购买BTC,推动价格一路上涨的过程,到头来大部分山寨远远没有跑赢大饼。币股和机构用于买入ETH的这部分资金,也不太会外溢到其他山寨上。
数据上,根据CMC,过去30天Top200的代币里涨幅大于ETH的只有20个,还包括Bonk、Zora、CFX、ENA这些明显受利好事件驱动的。
山寨选择上,遵循此前做空的逻辑,优先选择市值偏高、非龙头、走法不强势、存在感低的,并且分散做空,设好止损,防止单个标的爆拉。
假如下半年后市继续走牛,我相信很大概率依然是会由ETH推动,假如走熊,我也不觉得山寨可以独善其身,而ETH至少有机构的购买力托底。会导致这个对冲思路失效的情况,要么是山寨季真的来了,大部分山寨都持续跑赢ETH,要么是ETH震荡或者领跌,而其他山寨反而跌的不多,按照这几个月的经验,我觉得可能性较小。
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